Running on Empty

I want to take a minute to talk about the Carolina Panthers. This is a team that prided themselves on running the ball last year, which in my opinion is one of the reasons why Cam Newton was as successful as he was early on. Not only could Cam run the ball, but with two other solid RB’s in the backfield, the opposing defense was on their toes the whole game. Their own defense woes aside, many experts thought Carolina might take a step forward. So what has gone wrong this season? I believe the secret lies with Charlotte....I mean, lies in the play-calling (points if you get the movie reference there). Let’s take a look at Carolina’s first game against Tampa (Tampa won 16-10).

Run – 13

Pass – 33

Does this look like a run heavy offense to you? 13 running plays for 10 yards. Ouch. I know the Tampa run defense is good, but COME ON MAN. You cannot, especially if you’re a great running team like the Panthers, let a defense control the line of scrimmage like that. The game was close, so you can't say the game got away early. The Panthers just got away from what they did well. Now let’s look at the Saints game (Panthers won 35-27).

Run – 41

Pass – 20 

There we go! Someone got a wake up call! "Hey, we should run the ball, because that’s what we’re good at!" 41 carries and 219(!) yards later, the Panthers knocked off a team they’ve had trouble with for years. This is how you dominate the line of scrimmage. Now the question is, can the Panthers maintain that momentum? Let’s look at the Giants game (Giants won 36-7).

Run – 20

Pass – 33

While closer than the first week, you can see a big discrepancy here again. Not surprisingly, the Panthers got blown out. Now, you can say that Carolina had to abandon the run because the Giants got up early on them. While I believe some of that, Carolina is one of THE BEST teams in terms of yards per carry in the NFL. They are one of the few teams that can move the ball in large chunks if committed to the running game. Even if you look at the play calls, a lot of DeAngelo Williams runs came in the 2^nd half…when the Panthers EASILY moved the ball better.

The Panthers are successful when they run the ball. Some offenses in recent years, like the Packers and Patriots, have an offense that can move with short passes which basically acts as the running game. The Panthers, though their mascot also begins with P, do not have that type of offense.

It looks like the coaching staff has fallen in love with Cam Newton. While I understand this, because he is an extremely dynamic playmaker, this is his second year in the league, and made some very obvious regressions toward the end of last year. One would think the Panthers would want to ensure that Cam is as comfortable as possible, and it was pretty evident to everyone who watched the Giants game last Thursday that Cam is NOT comfortable. This running game has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the recently acquired Mike Tolbert. Include Cam Newton in that category, and this team should run the ball AT MINIMUM 35 times a game. Nothing helps a young QB more than a solid running game.

A good example of that is the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones made Matt Cassel look like Tom Brady, throwing 27 TD's and 7 INT's. Now I'm not comparing Cam Newton to Matt Cassel...trust me, I'd be ecstatic if the Chiefs had as dynamic a playmaker as Cam at QB. But the team comparison fits. Teams that run the ball very effectively give their QB more opportunities to make plays.

So this week, the Panthers face a pretty stout defense in the Atlanta Falcons, but they also face an extremely potent offense. If the Panthers get down early…can they be disciplined enough to stick with the running game? If so, they have a chance to pull the upset. If not, I expect to see another blowout.

What's the fantasy spin on this? Cam isn't a top 10 QB if this team continues to throw more than run, plain and simple. He has the potential, but he can't carry the team by himself. He has to get his star RB's involved in the game. Williams and Stewart are both flex plays at best right now, unless the team starts running the ball again. If that happens, both of these guys are startable as RB2's. Steve Smith will continue to struggle as the deep threat. Basically, until this team shows some committment to running the football, I'm staying away from recommending anyone on this team.

Week 3 - Start 'em or Sit 'em

Hey y'all.  Hopefully you have had better success than I have this fantasy season.  In one league, touchdowns have been very far and few between.  I still feel like I have a solid team, but man it stinks to be looking at an 0-2 record.  Seriously, I have two touchdowns scored for my entire team this season, outside of my QB.  Touchdowns are so fluky.  Luckily, I've had the a top priority pick on the waiver wire after the first few weeks so I've been able to add some potentially great pieces, which allowed me to make an intriguing trade and add Rob Gronkowski to my team. 

Back to week 3, let's get down and dirty with some advice!  Here are my "starts" of the week.

RB - Stevan Ridley
If I asked you how Baltimore has ranked against the run so far this season, you may be surprised to hear that they are ranked 20th in the NFL, allowing an average of 129 yards per game this season.  While they have some great pieces on defense, they are getting quite a few miles on them.  I think the thought of Brady shredding them down field with the pass, might open up the running game for Ridley.  I think he's a strong start for RB2, possibly a low-end RB1 for those Matt Forte owners who didn't draft Michael Bush.  I'll give Ridley the green light for week 3, even if it is against the once great Baltimore defense. 
Prediction: 19 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD - 15 points.

WR - Eric Decker
I've been very high on Decker throughout the draft season.  Seriously, I have him on both of my main teams.  Now, I know Demaryius Thomas has seen the most success this season.  But, it's not like Decker is being ignored.  He's got 9 receptions through the first two weeks, but hasn't gotten the yardage or seen the end zone yet.  Thomas has been fortunate in turning some short passes into long plays.  It's clear that Manning it trying to get the ball to both of these guys.  If you are like me, stay the course!  Decker will get his numbers, and I think you'll start reaping those rewards this week. 
Prediction: 7 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD - 14 points.

DST - Dolphins
You might say, "Monty, this sounds a little fishy."  Well, first and foremost I will tell you, that Dolphins are mammals, not fish.  Secondly, I will tell you that the Dolphins are currently ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.  I know, I know, it's only been two games so far.  But when your first two games of the season are against Arian Foster, and Darren McFadden, I think you can take a little bit away from that.  This week, the Dolphins host the Jets.  Now, I don't know if you've seen the Jets play, but they have been known to sometimes have problems throwing the ball, and rely a little more on the running game.  If you add in the notion that Mark Sanchez isn't exactly a hall of fame QB, and the offense in general can leave you wanting more, I could see the Dolphins putting up a pretty solid defense this week.
Prediction: 13 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INT - 11 points.

These are my "sits" of the week.

QB - Joe Flacco
I don't have many stats to back up this pick, but I could see the Patriots getting up by a couple touchdowns, forcing the Ravens to attack through the air.  Flacco could potentially get into some trouble if this is the case.
Prediction: 265 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT - 10 points

RB - Steven Jackson
This shouldn't be a surprise, as Jackson has not practiced yet this week.  Even if he does go, the Rams are traveling to Chicago to take on a Bears that got embarrassed last week.  Look for them to shut down the Rams offense, even if S-Jax gets the start.
Prediction: 14 carries, 55 yards, 0 TD - 5 Points.

WR - Larry Fitzgerald
I know, I try to preach the concept of "start your studs", but dang... Fitz is just stuck in an unfortunate situation with the revolving door of QBs on his team.  I heard this stat from Matthew Berry; out of the 10 games that Fitz has played with Kolb starting at QB, he has two touchdowns.  Until the QB situation get a little more solidified, I'd be very nervous about starting Fitz.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TD - 5 points.

Week 2 Matchup

So I wanted to post a little bit about my thoughts regarding Jay Cutler. I had to post this earlier than usual, as Monty and I usually post our "Start/Sit" players on Friday. Unfortunately, since Cutler kicks off here in about 15 minutes, I wanted to get this down before the game starts.

I'm really high on Cutler going into this game, and I expect him to be very, very good. Cutler, in his history, has been awful against the Packers, and really awful against any team that can get good, consistent pressure in his face. Indianapolis got off to a good start in that regard, but couldn't maintain it. There are a couple of reasons why I think Cutler should be able to avoid continuing his awful history tonight:

• Offensive Playmakers
• Have you seen the skill players at receiver that Cutler is playing with now? Reuniting with Brandon Marshall, after one week, seems to have reaped some serious benefits. Alshon Jeffery looked pretty good beating double coverage on a 40+ yard TD catch. Cutler has always had great chemistry with Earl Bennett, a guy he played with in college at Vanderbilt. The Bears finally have some solid weapons at receiver. NOTE: I did not mention Devin Hester on purpose.
• Michael Bush. This guy is going to provide something the Bears haven't had since Matt Forte has been in Chicago. Bush showed last week that he can work well in this offense, and that there will be plenty of carries to go around between himself and Forte. Two close-in TD's will take that much more pressure off Cutler in the red zone.
• Offensive Philosophy
• Maybe even more important than the new skill players is Mike Tice's offensive game plan compared to the philosophy of Mike Martz, the former OC in Chicago. Tice's system seems to encourage quick passes and a larger emphasis on the run game, which should help Cutler avoid being sacked 9,000 times this year. Cutler and the Bears employed this new philosophy to perfection last week.

Because of the above reasons, I think Cutler will not only have a great game tonight, but might actually be a top 10 QB for the rest of the season. Now that he's got the weapons around him, and a philosophy that better fits his talents, Cutler should continue to excel and prove that he belongs in the conversation about moving into the game's elite QB's.

Week 2 Rankings

Before we get to the rankings, let's take a look back at week 1 so I can get something off my chest...
I hate kickers.  Not the actual people them selves, but for the sake of fantasy football, kickers are stupid.  I won't bore you with details, but I essentially lost one of my leagues last week, because of David Akers' ridiculous 63 yard field goal.  If you know me at all, you know that I am of the belief that it literally doesn't matter which kicker you have.  Seriously, do the math.  It won't matter over the course of the season.  You will still have lucky weeks like this from time to time.  The value of a fantasy kicker is impossible to predict.  It stings especially bad after being beat, knowing that my opponent sacrificed the depth and quality of his roster by drafting Akers so early.  Booooo kickers.  Hopefully things will even out over the course of the season. 

Onto some rankings for week 2.  Going forward, Wes and I are changing things up a bit.  Since we both have full time jobs, wives, kids, etc., it's difficult for us to have the necessary time to put together a full list of rankings every week and contribute on this blog.  Much like The Bushwhackers, Legion of Doom, and the Steiner Brothers before us, we will become a championship caliber Tag Team!  We are going to try and trade off with ranking different positions each week, so we can keep you better informed in a timely fashion each week.  Plus, lets get real... it's less work for us this way. Matthew Berry would be so proud that we are not hustling. :)
For week 2, I am putting together rankings for QB, RB, and DST while Wes is has the WR and TE rankings.  Good luck in week 2!

Monty
Rank	QB	Rank	RB	Rank	DST
1	T. Brady	1	A. Foster	1	Pittsburgh
2	A. Rodgers	2	R. Rice	2	Baltimore
3	D. Brees	3	A. Peterson	3	Houston
4	P. Manning	4	D. McFadden	4	San Fransisco
5	E. Manning	5	MJD	5	New England
6	T. Romo	6	M. Forte	6	Cincinnati
7	C. Newton	7	L. McCoy	7	New York Giants
8	M. Stafford	8	D. Murray	8	Chicago
9	M. Ryan	9	S. Jackson	9	Oakland
10	J. Cutler	10	M. Lynch	10	Cleveland
11	RGIII	11	J. Charles	11	New York Jets
12	P. Rivers	12	C.J. Spiller	12	Buffalo
13	B. Roethlisberger	13	Law Firm	13	Dallas
14	J. Flacco	14	D. Martin	14	San Diego
15	M. Vick	15	S. Ridley	15	Green Bay
16	A. Luck	16	R. Bush	16	Kansas City
17	C. Palmer	17	F. Gore	17	Denver
18	S. Bradford	18	A. Bradshaw	18	Minnesota
19	M. Schaub	19	W. McGahee	19	Detroit
20	R. Fitzpatrick	20	Ch. Johnson	20	Atlanta
		21	D. Brown
		22	T. Richardson
		23	D. Sproles
		24	M. Turner
		25	M. Bush
		26	S. Greene
		27	J. Dwyer
		28	A. Morris
		29	K. Smith
		30	B. Tate
		31	M. Ingram
		32	J. Stewart
Wes
Rank	WR	Rank	TE
1	Calvin Johnson	1	Graham
2	A. Johnson	2	Gronkowski
3	B. Marshall	3	Gates
4	AJ Green	4	Hernandez
5	Julio Jones	5	Finley
6	Harvin	6	V. Davis
7	Fitzgerald	7	Pettigrew
8	Cruz	8	F. Davis
9	Welker	9	Daniels
10	White	10	Gonzalez
11	J. Nelson	11	Olsen
12	B. Lloyd	12	Cook
13	Steve Smith (CAR)	13	Tamme
14	A. Brown	14	Bennett
15	Nicks	15	Celek
16	V. Jackson
17	Maclin
18	Wallace
19	Wayne
20	Bryant
21	Bowe
22	S. Johnson
23	Austin
24	Colston
25	D. Jackson
26	Decker
27	Garcon
28	T. Smith
29	D. Thomas
30	L. Moore

Week 1 Rankings

Football is here!  I know it seems like we've been planning and planning for this.  The time has finally arrived to manage those fantasy teams.  Wes and I have put together our rankings for week 1.  Hopefully this might help you set your lineup if you are unsure about who to start and who to sit.  I apologize that these aren't up soon enough for the Wednesday night game.  Either way, you'll be set up for Sunday and Monday.  The rankings were completed before the Wednesday night game, I just didn't have a chance to post them, until later.  Enough with the chit-chat... here they are!

 

QB
Rank	Player	Monty	Wes	Composite
1	Brees	1	3	2.0
1	Rodgers	3	1	2.0
3	Brady	4	2	3.0
4	Stafford	2	5	3.5
5	Newton	6	4	5.0
6	Vick	5	6	5.5
7	E. Manning	7	7	7.0
8	P. Manning	8	9	8.5
9	Roethlisberger	11	10	10.5
10	Rivers	15	8	11.5
10	Romo	9	14	11.5
10	Ryan	10	13	11.5
13	Cutler	12	12	12.0
14	Schaub	NR	11	13.0
15	Bradford	13	NR	14.0
16	RGIII	14	NR	14.5
17	Flacco	NR	15	15.0
RB
Rank	Player	Monty	Wes	Composite
1	Foster	1	1	1.0
2	McCoy	2	2	2.0
3	Rice	3	3	3.0
4	Forte	4	4	4.0
5	McFadden	5	6	5.5
6	S. Jackson	8	5	6.0
7	Charles	7	8	7.5
8	Ch. Johnson	9	7	8.0
9	Murray	10	9	9.5
10	Turner	6	16	11.0
11	Martin	13	10	11.5
12	Lynch	12	13	12.5
13	Sproles	14	12	13.0
14	D. Williams	17	11	14.0
14	Bradshaw	11	17	14.0
16	F. Jackson	16	14	15.0
17	R. Bush	15	18	16.5
18	Gore	21	15	18.0
19	McGahee	19	20	19.5
20	R. Jennings	18	22	20.0
21	Law Firm	24	19	21.5
22	Gerhart	26	21	23.5
23	MJD	20	28	24.0
24	Richardson	25	24	24.5
25	Brown	23	27	25.0
26	Hillis	27	25	26.0
26	Ridley	22	NR	26.0
28	K. Smith	NR	23	26.5
29	Redman	28	26	27.0
30	Ingram	NR	29	29.5
30	Tate	29	NR	29.5
31	Greene	30	30	30.0
WR
Rank	Player	Monty	Wes	Composite
1	Ca. Johnson	1	1	1.0
2	Welker	2	3	2.5
3	Fitzgerald	5	2	3.5
4	White	4	6	5.0
5	Marshall	3	10	6.5
6	A.J. Green	10	4	7.0
7	Ju. Jones	8	7	7.5
8	Jennings	7	11	9.0
8	Nicks	9	9	9.0
10	A. Johnson	15	5	10.0
11	Bryant	6	18	12.0
12	S. Smith (Car)	11	14	12.5
12	Harvin	13	12	12.5
14	Lloyd	12	17	14.5
14	J. Nelson	14	15	14.5
16	Cruz	22	8	15.0
17	A. Brown	18	13	15.5
18	D. Jackson	16	21	18.5
19	Maclin	20	20	20.0
20	Decker	19	23	21.0
20	Colston	23	19	21.0
20	V. Jackson	26	16	21.0
23	Garcon	17	26	21.5
23	Wallace	21	22	21.5
25	Wayne	25	25	25.0
26	Bowe	27	24	25.5
27	De. Thomas	24	30	27.0
28	Austin	28	28	28.0
29	St. Johnson	30	27	28.5
30	Washington	29	NR	29.5
30	T. Smith	NR	29	29.5
TE
Rank	Player	Monty	Wes	Composite
1	Graham	1	1	1.0
2	Gronkowski	5	2	3.5
2	Gates	4	3	3.5
4	Hernandez	2	6	4.0
5	V. Davis	3	7	5.0
6	F. Davis	8	5	6.5
7	Finley	10	4	7.0
7	Pettigrew	6	8	7.0
9	Gonzalez	7	11	9.0
10	Cook	12	9	10.5
10	Olsen	11	10	10.5
10	Daniels	9	12	10.5
13	Tamme	13	14	13.5
14	Celek	NR	13	14.0
15	Fleener	14	NR	14.5
16	Bennet	15	15	15.0

2012 TE Rankings

Sorry for the delay.  I'll cut to the chase, and post our TE rankings for 2012.

Monty's 2012 TE Rankings				Wes' 2012 TE Rankings
Rank	Player	Team		Rank	Player	Team
1	Jimmy Graham	NO		1	Jimmy Graham	NO
2	Rob Gronkowski	NE		2	Rob Gronkowski	NE
3	Aaron Hernandez	NE		3	Antonio Gates	SD
4	Antonio Gates	SD		4	Jermichael Finley	GB
5	Vernon Davis	SF		5	Vernon Davis	SF
6	Jermichael Finley	GB		6	Jason Witten	DAL
7	Jacob Tamme	DEN		7	Brandon Pettigrew	DET
8	Brandon Pettigrew	DET		8	Owen Daniels	HOU
9	Fred Davis	WAS		9	Aaron Hernandez	NE
10	Tony Gonzalez	ATL		10	Tony Gonzalez	ATL
11	Jason Witten	DAL		11	Fred Davis	WAS
12	Brent Celek	PHI		12	Jared Cook	TEN
13	Jerad Cook	TEN		13	Jacob Tamme	DEN
14	Dustin Keller	NYJ		14	Tony Moeaki	KC
15	Owen Daniels	HOU		15	Brent Celek	PHI
16	Jermaine Gresham	CIN		16	Dustin Keller	NYJ
17	Coby Fleener	IND		17	Martellus Bennett	NYG
18	Greg Olsen	CAR		18	Greg Olsen	CAR
19	Tony Moeaki	KC		19	Jermaine Gresham	CIN
20	Kyle Rudolph	MIN		20	Marcedes Lewis	JAC

In the next few days, Wes and I will hopefully post some helpful draft day tips to keep in mind as you draft your championship team!

2012 WR Rankings

On we go with our wide receiver rankings.  This list will likely be the one where Wes and I differ the most on.  Like every year, once you get past the first 35 WR or so, it's a crap shoot.  Enjoy!

Monty's 2012 WR Rankings				Wes' 2012 WR Rankings
Rank	Player	Team		Rank	Player	Team
1	Calvin Johnson	DET		1	Calvin Johnson	DET
2	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI		2	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI
3	Wes Welker	NE		3	Roddy White	ATL
4	Andre Johnson	HOU		4	Greg Jennings	GB
5	Roddy White	ATL		5	Andre Johnson	HOU
6	A.J. Green	CIN		6	Wes Welker	NE
7	Greg Jennings	GB		7	A.J. Green	CIN
8	Hakeem Nicks	NYG		8	Julio Jones	ATL
9	Julio Jones	ATL		9	Brandon Marshall	CHI
10	Mike Wallace	PIT		10	DeSean Jackson	PHI
11	Victor Cruz	NYG		11	Steve Smith	CAR
12	Jordy Nelson	GB		12	Mike Wallace	PIT
13	Brandon Marshall	CHI		13	Victor Cruz	NYG
14	Dez Bryant	DAL		14	Jordy Nelson	GB
15	Steve Smith	CAR		15	Hakeem Nicks	NYG
16	Percy Harvin	MIN		16	Brandon Lloyd	NE
17	Marques Colston	NO		17	Vincent Jackson	TB
18	Demaryius Thomas	DEN		18	Steve Johnson	BUF
19	Miles Austin	DAL		19	Antonio Brown	PIT
20	Vincent Jackson	TB		20	Dez Bryant	DAL
21	Dwayne Bowe	KC		21	Miles Austin	DAL
22	Jeremy Maclin	PHI		22	Marques Colston	NO
23	Eric Decker	DEN		23	Dwayne Bowe	KC
24	Brandon Lloyd	NE		24	Jeremy Maclin	PHI
25	Steve Johnson	BUF		25	Demaryius Thomas	DEN
26	DeSean Jackson	PHI		26	Eric Decker	DEN
27	Antonio Brown	PIT		27	Percy Harvin	MIN
28	Reggie Wayne	IND		28	Reggie Wayne	IND
29	Pierre Garcon	WAS		29	Pierre Garcon	WAS
30	Torrey Smith	BAL		30	Malcom Floyd	SD
31	Robert Meachum	SD		31	Denarius Moore	OAK
32	Denarius Moore	OAK		32	Torrey Smith	BAL
33	Titus Young	DET		33	Mario Manningham	SF
34	Austin Collie	IND		34	Jonathan Baldwin	KC
35	Kenny Britt	TEN		35	Robert Meachem	SD
36	Anquan Boldin	BAL		36	Anquan Boldin	BAL
37	Greg Little	CLE		37	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK
38	Lance Moore	NO		38	Austin Collie	IND
39	Santonio Holmes	NYJ		39	Kenny Britt	TEN
40	Justin Blackmon	JAX		40	Santonio Holmes	NYJ
41	Malcom Floyd	SD		41	Lance Moore	NO
42	Danny Amendola	STL		42	Michael Crabtree	SF
43	Mike Williams	TB		43	Titus Young	DET
44	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK		44	Nate Washington	TEN
45	Michael Crabtree	SF		45	Laurent Robinson	JAC
46	Nate Washington	TEN		46	Mike Williams	TB
47	Sidney Rice	SEA		47	Sidney Rice	SEA
48	Nate Burleson	DET		48	Justin Blackmon	JAC
49	Michael Floyd	ARI		49	Rueben Randle	NYG
50	Laurent Robinson	JAX		50	Michael Floyd	ARI
51	Brandon Lafell	CAR		51	Nate Burleson	DET
52	Mario Manningham	SF		52	Randy Moss	SF
53	Doug Baldwin	SEA		53	Greg Little	CLE
54	Kendal Wright	TEN		54	Leonard Hankerson	WAS
55	Randy Moss	SF		55	Brian Quick	STL
56	Rueben Randle	NYG		56	Kendall Wright	TEN
57	David Nelson	BUF		57	Randall Cobb	GB
58	Jon Baldwin	KC		58	Jacoby Ford	OAK
59	Steve Smith	STL		59	Vincent Brown	SD
60	Vincent Brown	SD		60	Steve Breaston	KC

Check back once again in a few days for our tight end rankings.