Running on Empty

I want to take a minute to talk about the Carolina Panthers. This is a team that prided themselves on running the ball last year, which in my opinion is one of the reasons why Cam Newton was as successful as he was early on. Not only could Cam run the ball, but with two other solid RB’s in the backfield, the opposing defense was on their toes the whole game. Their own defense woes aside, many experts thought Carolina might take a step forward. So what has gone wrong this season? I believe the secret lies with Charlotte....I mean, lies in the play-calling (points if you get the movie reference there). Let’s take a look at Carolina’s first game against Tampa (Tampa won 16-10).

Run – 13

Pass – 33

Does this look like a run heavy offense to you? 13 running plays for 10 yards. Ouch. I know the Tampa run defense is good, but COME ON MAN. You cannot, especially if you’re a great running team like the Panthers, let a defense control the line of scrimmage like that. The game was close, so you can't say the game got away early. The Panthers just got away from what they did well. Now let’s look at the Saints game (Panthers won 35-27).

Run – 41

Pass – 20 

There we go! Someone got a wake up call! "Hey, we should run the ball, because that’s what we’re good at!" 41 carries and 219(!) yards later, the Panthers knocked off a team they’ve had trouble with for years. This is how you dominate the line of scrimmage. Now the question is, can the Panthers maintain that momentum? Let’s look at the Giants game (Giants won 36-7).

Run – 20

Pass – 33

While closer than the first week, you can see a big discrepancy here again. Not surprisingly, the Panthers got blown out. Now, you can say that Carolina had to abandon the run because the Giants got up early on them. While I believe some of that, Carolina is one of THE BEST teams in terms of yards per carry in the NFL. They are one of the few teams that can move the ball in large chunks if committed to the running game. Even if you look at the play calls, a lot of DeAngelo Williams runs came in the 2^nd half…when the Panthers EASILY moved the ball better.

The Panthers are successful when they run the ball. Some offenses in recent years, like the Packers and Patriots, have an offense that can move with short passes which basically acts as the running game. The Panthers, though their mascot also begins with P, do not have that type of offense.

It looks like the coaching staff has fallen in love with Cam Newton. While I understand this, because he is an extremely dynamic playmaker, this is his second year in the league, and made some very obvious regressions toward the end of last year. One would think the Panthers would want to ensure that Cam is as comfortable as possible, and it was pretty evident to everyone who watched the Giants game last Thursday that Cam is NOT comfortable. This running game has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and the recently acquired Mike Tolbert. Include Cam Newton in that category, and this team should run the ball AT MINIMUM 35 times a game. Nothing helps a young QB more than a solid running game.

A good example of that is the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones made Matt Cassel look like Tom Brady, throwing 27 TD's and 7 INT's. Now I'm not comparing Cam Newton to Matt Cassel...trust me, I'd be ecstatic if the Chiefs had as dynamic a playmaker as Cam at QB. But the team comparison fits. Teams that run the ball very effectively give their QB more opportunities to make plays.

So this week, the Panthers face a pretty stout defense in the Atlanta Falcons, but they also face an extremely potent offense. If the Panthers get down early…can they be disciplined enough to stick with the running game? If so, they have a chance to pull the upset. If not, I expect to see another blowout.

What's the fantasy spin on this? Cam isn't a top 10 QB if this team continues to throw more than run, plain and simple. He has the potential, but he can't carry the team by himself. He has to get his star RB's involved in the game. Williams and Stewart are both flex plays at best right now, unless the team starts running the ball again. If that happens, both of these guys are startable as RB2's. Steve Smith will continue to struggle as the deep threat. Basically, until this team shows some committment to running the football, I'm staying away from recommending anyone on this team.