That being said, here is the fantasy news from this weekend from my games.
Panthers @ Bears
Headline – Matt Forte has career day, Newton impresses again in loss.
Who’s Hot?
Matt Forte – A career day of 205 yards on the ground, Forte actually excelled in the RUN game for once this year. Is this a sign of things to come from Mike Martz, or just a good day against a bad defense? Regardless, Forte remains a must start in all formats.
Cam Newton – The guy can ball. Another 374 yards, one TD in the air and two more on the ground, the guy just keeps producing against every critic that says he can’t. He kept a bad Carolina team in the game until the end, and if he isn’t owned in your league, get him now.
Carolina Running Game – The Panthers ran for 169 yards on 26 carries to a tune of 6.5 yards per rush. Against a pretty stout Bears team, that’s a pretty good sign that both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are on the right track. Neither one got a score, though, and with Cam Newton seemingly being the goal-line option, that might continue to be the case.
Steve Smith and Greg Olsen – Both guys are benefitting from Cam Newton throwing the ball all over the yard, and should continue to be solid scorers from here out. Smith had 181 yards, and will eventually break another deep ball for a long TD. Olsen should see more looks as a safety valve for Newton.
Who’s Not?
Jay Cutler – Granted, the Bears ran the ball at will in this game, so Cutler’s services were not needed as much, but he continues to disappoint from a fantasy perspective. He will have one or two games this year that show his fantasy potential, but he really is not much more than a backup in 10 or 12 team leagues.
Bears receivers – See above.
Bears Defense – This is strictly from a defensive perspective; they had two return TD’s this week and showed why they are a top 10 fantasy defense. However, they allowed 29 points to a not so good Panthers team, including the above rushing number of 6.5 yards per carry. That defense will have to improve in order to rely on them on a weekly basis. They are turning into a matchup start compared to their normal start every week status.
Lions @ Cowboys
Headline – Calvin Johnson steals the game in an otherwise lackluster Lions effort.
Who’s Hot?
Calvin Johnson – Again, Megatron shines through. His TD catch in TRIPLE coverage (read: three defenders) was an awe-inspiring athletic showcase. He is hands down the best fantasy receiver in the NFL, and he might have even separated himself into his own tier of receiver. He only managed 96 yards, but that’s how good he’s become. “Only” 96 yards, which would be a banner day for most other receivers. 13 targets this week for Megatron – expect that to be the norm.
Jason Witten – Witten continues to be one of the most reliable options in the Cowboys offense. How do the Lions let him slip out into the corner at the goal-line? 94 yards and his first TD of the season.
Dez Bryant – He only managed 3 catches for 37 yards, but he was there when it counted for the ‘Boys with two scores. The bye week should help him (and other Cowboys) heal up and be ready in week 6.
Laurent Robinson – 7 catches for 116 yards? Tony Romo’s new favorite target? Don’t get too excited, as Miles Austin should be back in week 6, and a healthy Austin, healthy Bryant, and healthy Witten should mean Robinson falls down into the weak flex play going forward.
Tony Romo – Regardless of the outcome of the game, Romo still threw for 331 yards and 3 scores. He is an enigma as an NFL quarterback, but he is still rock solid from a fantasy perspective.
Who’s Not?
Tony Romo – Wait a minute, I thought you said Romo was Hot?! Yeah well, he had a fantastic first half and a second half to forget, times 10. Bad decisions will plaque a quarterback for a few days – the best thing Romo can do is just forget about Detroit and head into his bye working on healing. Tough to do in the media frenzy that is the Dallas Cowboys.
Felix Jones and Jahvid Best – Unfortunately, with as much talent as these two backs might have, neither Detroit nor Dallas is interested in running the ball. With 16 for 57 and 11 for 47 respectively, neither back can really be counted on consistently. Both of them have home run potential, though. We’ve just yet to see the potential really shine through on the field. One striking stat jumped at me about Best – 2 catches on 8 targets. Since his value largely comes from the screen and short pass game, a 25% catch rate is NOT going to get it done.
Redskins @ Rams
Headline – Shanahan is back to his old tricks and Torain steamrolls the Rams.
Who’s Hot?
Ryan Torain – Anyone that would have told you that Ryan Torain was startable in ANY format would have been mocked relentlessly before this game. 135 yards and a score later…he’s another part of the Shanahan merry-go-round that is running backs. Torain had the talent to be the every-down back last year. Do the Redskins go with him again?
Redskins D – SEVEN sacks. That is a lot of hurt put on Sam Bradford. This defense is turning into a defense to own in any format, especially after holding the Cowboys to 18 points the week before.
Who’s Not?
The Rams – Seriously, if you have to start anyone it’s Steven Jackson. I was one of the people who thought Bradford would really have a good season this year, but alas…the Rams are still the Rams. Jackson did manage 64 total yards and a score, which is decent, but stay away from anyone else on this team.
Rex Grossman – This is a bad Rams defense, so is Grossman’s bad day (143 yards, a score, and 2 picks) due to Torain running roughshod over the Rams, or does it speak to his inability to be consistent? Since Rex has never been a consistent starter before, I’m inclined to go with the latter.
49ers @ Eagles
Headline – The “Dream Team” sleeps through the second half as San Francisco pulls off the upset.
Who’s Hot?
Michael Vick – Vick had a great game, throwing for 416 yards and adding 75 on the ground. This is why you took him as the first round pick this year. He only managed 2 scores, which hurt his value a little, but overall a great day for Vick owners. As long as he stays healthy, he is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL.
DeSean Jackson – The only thing missing from his box score is a score. 171 yards through the air is rather monstrous, especially when it was only on 6 catches (28.5 yards per catch)! He has become a bit feast or famine, though, but you can’t sit him if you own him.
Frank Gore – One of the toughest backs in the game, Gore plays better hurt than he does when he’s healthy. He capped off a great game (127 yards on 15 carries) with a 12 yard score in the 4th to give the ‘niners the lead and eventually the win. Kendall Hunter gets an honorable mention with 100 total yards.
Alex Smith – I never thought I’d include Alex Smith in this category, but he had 291 yards and 2 scores against a talent rich secondary. Don’t get crazy though – I expect this is an anomaly rather than the norm.
Who’s Not?
Eagles D – This free agent laden defense has become quite porous in the last few games, unable to hold leads and completely inept against the run. With the news that Trent Cole will miss at minimum the next two games, this defense is going to need to find some heart and motivate themselves to play better.
LeSean McCoy – Hard to put him here with 50+ total yards and a score, but only 2.0 yards per carry, albeit against a great run defense in San Fran, is not good enough. You start him if you got him, and he shouldn’t have very many games like this, but the ones that do hurt.
Giants @ Cardinals
Headline – Questionable call gives Giants chance; they take advantage.
Who’s Hot?
Eli Manning – Eli has the potential to really put up some good numbers, and he’s shown his critics up over the last few weeks. Another great performance (321 yards and 2 scores) and he should be back in the top 10 QB rankings this week.
Hakeem Nicks – 14 targets? Anyone who is looked at 14 times in one game is going to put up solid numbers. 10 catches, 162 yards with a score, Nicks is rewarding owners who have stuck with him. Eli’s great play so far has also helped. Don’t expect him to slow down anytime soon.
Beanie Wells – WHAT?! A fantastic game for Wells here against a reasonably good Giants defense. The number that pops out for me is the 27 carries (for 138 yards and 3 scores). Beanie has always had the talent, but injury has kept him down for a majority of his career. If he can start taking advantage of his talent when he’s healthy, he has a chance to be a solid RB going forward.
Who’s Not?
Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs – Yes, they both got in the end zone, but 2.7 yards per carry (12 for 39 and 9 for 18 respectively)? Against the Cardinals? I imagine this is more an anomaly than anything, but with Eli slinging the ball around as well as he has, don’t be surprised if these two start seeing less and less action.
Kevin Kolb – Kolb has had a rough go of it so far this season, and this game wasn’t any different. He was still 20 of 34, but no scores = not startable for a QB. He hasn’t shown the ability to take over a game like the elite QB’s in the league, and he’s going to need to have a great game against the Vikings next week for any fantasy owner to think about starting him.
Atlanta @ Seattle
Headline – Julio Jones shines as Falcons win battle of the birds.
Who’s Hot?
Julio Jones – He is starting to come into his own a little in this pass happy offense. 17 targets, 11 catches for 127 yards, Jones is becoming the fantasy option people expected at the beginning of the season. Look for his production to continue to be solid, but also look for Roddy White (6 for 78) to benefit from Jones’ emergence. Just as experts thought Jones would take away some looks for Roddy, the same can be said the other way if Jones continues to excel in this offense.
Tavaris Jackson – Never thought I’d say this with a straight face, but Jackson was actually a reasonable fantasy start this week (319 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, and 2 carries for 16 yards). Don’t get too crazy, though – I don’t expect this every week.
Sidney Rice – He only had 3 catches, but 79 yards and a score is a good day for most fantasy receivers. If he’s healthy, it’s hard to sit him, especially when he plays at home, when Seattle is especially dangerous.
Who’s Not?
Michael Turner – Yes, he scored 2 TD’s, but at 2.7 yards per carry, he is no longer the feature guy in Atlanta. The team has turned into a pass first team, with Turner picking up the leftovers. Do you sit him? No, but you can’t really expect any more than what you got this week as his extreme high upside. The days of him going for 140 yards and 2 scores are gone.
Atlanta Defense – What happened to this defense? They are really struggling through the air, and while teams are having a hard time running on them for the most part, they gave up over 300 yards to the Seahawks. THE SEAHAWKS. Stay away.
Broncos @ Packers
Headline – Rodgers has record day; Broncos are bad.
Who’s Hot?
Packers Offense – You can’t say enough about Aaron Rodgers. He is hands down the best fantasy QB in the league. 408 yards, 4 TD’s to go along with 36 yards on the ground and 2 scores. Starks didn’t get in the end zone, but still finished with over 100 total yards and makes a decent flex play with Ryan Grant out. Jennings had 103 yards and a TD; Jordy Nelson had a 50 yard TD bomb. Rodgers, Nelson, Jennings, Finley, Starks are all startable in most leagues because this offense is so prolific. Enough said.
Broncos Offense – Orton had a relatively decent game with 273 and 3 scores (3 INT), but his teammates are benefitting from playing from behind. Brandon Lloyd (11 targets, 8 catches and 136 yards) and Eric Decker (10 targets, 5 catches for 56 yards and 2 TD) are both startable as WR#2 or flex from here out. Bold statement – Decker finishes the year in the top 20 WR Rankings. The guy just knows how to find the endzone. Even Willis McGahee, left for dead by most experts, has emerged (15 carries for 103 yards) as a feature back again with Moreno still injured.
Who’s Not?
Packers Defense – What has happened to this once highly touted defense? Charles Woodson seems to be the only fantasy impact defensive player they have anymore. To give up 23 points to this Broncos team is a little suspect, in my mind. For where you drafted them, they need to perform much better.
Knowshon Moreno – He has struggled with injury for his whole career. Only 1 carry for 7 yards in this game, and McGahee has looked really good. I think you either need to try to trade him, or hope you had some good selections at the back end of your draft at RB. He is as unreliable now as a guy like Beanie Wells was last year.
Colts @ Buccaneers
Headline – Blount and company ruin Painter’s first NFL start.
Who’s Hot?
Pierre Garcon – Painter looked reasonably serviceable in this game, and looked to Garcon 8 times. Garcon only had 2 receptions, but they both went for long TD’s (total 146 yards). If Painter feels more comfortable in this offense, you might see Garcon perform a little better than Wayne or Clark going forward, especially next week against a banged up KC defense.
LeGarrette Blount – He ran between the tackles and wore down the Colts defense until they ran out of defensive tackles. Then he gashed them for a 35 yard score to seal the game for the Bucs (25 for 127 in total). He hasn’t disappointed owners who drafted him as a 2nd RB or flex, and if the Bucs continue to feed him the rock 20-25 times a game, he should continue to be a start in all formats.
Who’s Not?
Joseph Addai – He ran the ball well when given the opportunity, but only 11 carries for 41 yards isn’t going to cut it fantasy wise. He is going to need to get more touches in order to be a flex play next week against KC, which could happen.
Ok, peeps. Here goes the AFC Home games:
Bills 20, Bengals 23
Headline - One less undefeated team.
Who's Hot?
Fred Jackson - If you were one of the fortunate ones to grab Jackson as your 2nd or 3rd RB, you are probably among the leaders in your league. Jackson has been money through the first three weeks. Week four was no different! He didn't light the world on fire with his yardage. But, with almost 100 total yards and a TD, he is still getting you a good amount of points. Start him every week, if you are not already.
Cedric Benson/A.J. Green - Both guys got you great yardage, but neither one of them saw the end zone. Keep an eye on Benson's status for the upcoming weeks, and keep in mind that A.J. Green (Rookie) is catching passes from Andy Dalton (also Rookie). These two should still be considered matchup plays,or fill-ins for upcoming bye weeks.
Who's Not?
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Even his Harvard education couldn't help him to figure out the Cincinnati defense. The Bills were #3 in total offense in the NFL heading into this week, and with Fitz failing to eclipse 200 yards or throw a TD, you were surely disappointed. Even though the Bills host the Eagles next week, I think it's safe to run Fitzpatrick back out there.
Titans 31, Browns 13
Headline - Kenny Who?
Who's Hot?
Matt Hasselbeck - Love him, or hate him, Hasselbeck just knows how to get it done. Amid all the haters, Hasselbeck has been consistent this year. 220 yards, 3 TD and one pick will get you good points every time. It will never be pretty, but Hasselbeck could be a good pick up if you are scrambling at QB after drafting Peyton.
Chris Johnson – Ok, maybe not hot, but definitely warming up. He passed the century mark for the first time this season, which is definitely a positive note, on his mostly negative season. Expect him to keep getting better. A must start next week against the porous Steelers run defense. Ugh, did that really just get typed. Yeah, it doesn’t sound right, but the Steelers have allowed 119.5 yards per game to opposing running backs this season, which is good for 22nd in the NFL. To further drive this home, the Steelers have given up 107 (R. Rice), 11 (M. Lynch), 86 (J. Addai), and 155 (A. Foster) yards respectively over the first four weeks. Look for CJ to get at least 100 yards Sunday against the Steelers.
Who's Not?
Peyton Hillis - Now, I am the last one to buy into any superstition or curse, but if you don't believe in the "Madden Curse" at this point, you need to do some research! Hillis again struggled this week, getting you a whopping six points in standard scoring leagues. I think he'll kick it into gear as the season rolls on, so be patient.
Cleveland Passing Game - Before you fly off the handle here, yes I realize McCoy threw for 350 yards and had a TD. BUT, did you realize that McCoy had 61 pass attempts? Yes, 61! Did you also know, there were 11 different players with a reception? Would Colt McCoy's favorite target please stand up? *Crickets* Yeah, that's what I thought. From a fantasy perspective, you can't take anything away from week 4. Until a definite #1 target emerges from this steaming pile of mediocrity, keep on avoiding the Cleveland receivers.
Minnesota 17, Kansas City 22
Headline - Well, we knew somebody had to win...
Who's Hot?
Dwayne Bowe - 100 yards, and a TD. Yes, Please! It's amazing what can happen, when the Chiefs actually throw the ball. It's nice to be reminded every once in a while, of how incredibly talented Dwayne Bowe is. Hopefully this will spark the coaching staff into trusting Matt Cassel, and letting him throw for more than 125 yards every week. If Cassel does indeed keep throwing the ball, Bowe is a must start in your line up every week. Do I need to remind everyone of who led the NFL is Receiving touchdowns last season?
Adrian Peterson - Yeah, he didn't have the awesome, eye-popping performance he usually has, but considering how good the Chiefs were at stopping the run, Peterson was STILL able to get 80 yards of rushing. I can't tell you how many times he was stopped at the line of scrimmage, only to see him turn it into a three yard gain. It's not much, I know, but it's his drive and determination that is second to none. It also helps that this man is a beast, physically. This was merely a speed bump in his path to another spectacular season. Don't even think about taking this man out of your starting lineup.
Who's Not?
The Kansas City Chiefs Running Game - When the Chiefs lost Jamal Charles, they lost their entire running attack with him. Some people say, "Well, it's ok because they have Thomas Jones/Dexter McCluster/Jackie Battle/Le’Ron McClain..." Here's a news flash folks, it doesn't matter who gets the ball for the Chiefs. Charles was in a talent level by himself. Without him, the Chiefs have to expand that playbook, and try throwing the ball down field more. They did this in the second half of their game in Week 4, for the first time this year. Look what happened; they achieved victory for the first time this year. Maybe, I'm the only one seeing this correlation... The morel of this story is, don't start any Chief's running back. I think McCluster could be a flex option in deep leagues, but that's about it.
Donovan McNabb - Is he done? Does he need a hot bowl of soup to warm up that arm? McNabb is definitely showing the miles he has accumulated. There were a couple of instances this week, where McNabb was flushed out of the pocket and forced to make some tough decisions. In the past, I recall McNabb would run to the outside, and turn a failed play into a 6 yard run. This week, when we was flushed out of the pocket, he would run around, looking for a receiver, and instead of running and sliding for a 4 or 5 yard gain, he was opting to throw, only to miss badly, resulting in no yards on the play. I would avoid McNabb if you can. If you have a bye week coming up, with no other options, and matchup is destined for failure, I guess you can cringe as you put in your starting lineup. I wouldn't be proud of that decision though.
Saints 23, Jaguars 10
Headline – I’m surprised this game was as close as it was.
Who’s Hot?
Drew Brees – Yeah, this Brees guy is really good. If this is news to you, maybe you shouldn’t be playing Fantasy Football. He might have thrown a couple interceptions, but his yardage and touchdowns typically make up for it. As always, a number of different receivers got involved with their passing game.
Jimmy Graham – A lot of people pegged Graham to be a fantasy breakout this year. With a quarterback like Brees, I can definitely buy into that. This week, he proved he can be that dependable, consistent #1 fantasy tight end. Graham is a definite go in most leagues.
Darren Sproles – The little guy just knows how to move the ball. He has filled into the “Reggie Bush” role, only he’s a lot better. Mark Ingram is the clear every-down back, so he’ll never get a ton of carries. But, with the amount of time he gets the ball via the pass and the run, he’s still a valuable fantasy player. Sproles remains a good flex play in most weeks.
Who’s Not?
Blaine Gabbert – I realize it might be a little unfair to label Gabbart as not hot in his second career start. But, with a quarterback who is learning on the job, it’s easy for defenses to key in on MJD. Until he shows us any reason to believe in him, be sure to avoid Gabbart… not that you were ever considering starting him anyway.
Mercedes Lewis – Abandon Ship! Garrard loved to throw to him… last year. Clearly they are not including him as much in the offense this year. With a brand new quarterback heaving the ball, don’t look for things to change any time soon. If you can find a different tight end out there, now is probably a good time to switch.
Pittsburgh 10, Houston 17
Headline – Look out, Foster’s going Bananas!
Who’s Hot?
Arian Foster – Heeeee’s Baaaaaack. Those of you that have been waiting for him to shine were greatly rewarded by your patience. Those of you, who sat him because they played the Steelers, shame on you. Clearly haven’t paid any attention to fantasy football this year. Foster had little problem moving the ball against the Steelers in Week 4. Granted he carried the ball 30 times. But, that just tells me that he’s finally healthy and ready to roll. Be ready to run Foster out there every week, unless there is ever an injury concern.
Houston DST – Wes knew I’d be putting the Houston Defense on here, because frankly, I won’t shut up about them this year. According to ESPN, they were rated as the #5 fantasy defense heading into this week, and they certainly did not disappoint. Houston has no problems getting to Big Ben, much like every other team this year. They also held the Steelers to 10 points. With Wade Phillips as the Defensive Coordinator, a healthy Mario Williams, and a healthy Brian Cushing, good luck to opposing offenses. If they are somehow still available in your league, pick them up now. Aside from their bye week, and a tough matchup against Baltimore coming up, the Texans have very favorable matchups from here on out. The Houston DST will be a top 5 Fantasy Defense in 2011.
Who’s Not?
Ben Roethlisberger – It will be a steady race to see whether Big Ben, or Jay Cutler get sacked the most times in the NFL this season. With that porous offensive line, Roethlisberger is having a tough time getting the offense going. Mendenhall hasn’t been much support in the running game, and had to leave week 4 with an injury. Until the offensive line can improve to give Ben some more time, you might thinking about rolling out your back up QB, unless the matchup is too tasty to resist.
Andre Johnson/Rashard Mendenhall – The only reason I have these two here, is because they both left week 4 with injuries. Keep an eye on them going forward, to see if these injuries will keep them out of action in the coming weeks. If they are healthy, both of these guys are must-starts.
Matt Schaub – Again, Schaub probably doesn’t warrant a spot on the not-hot list. However, with the injury to Andre Johnson, and the return (and great performance) of Foster, you might see the Texans opting to use the running game a little more, and a little less from the passing game. This is merely speculation on my part, and Schaub should still be considered a #1 fantasy quarterback going forward.
Dolphins 16, Chargers 26
Headline – It’s gone from bad to worse in Miami.
Who’s Hot?
Phillip Rivers – A solid game, with no interceptions. This is why you drafted Rivers. With Miami’s pass defense being not-so-staunch, this was pretty much assumed. Expect more of the same going forward.
Vincent Jackson – This guy is stud. Only 3 receptions this week and got a little banged up in the process, but that big play potential is why you have him in there every week.
Ryan Matthews – Is 2011 turning into the Ryan Matthews coming out party? He seems healthy and is consistently being productive week in and week out. He’s seeing a healthy share of carries, as well as being involved with the passing game. The only downside to Matthews is the fact that Matt Tolbert is still San Diego’s first option when they are down on the goal line. Having said that, even if you get production like this from Matthews (81 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards) every week, I’d be happy! You know he will still have his fair share of touch downs as well. Keep on rolling him out there every week.
Who’s Not?
Miami Dolphins – I figure this would be easier to just lump this all into one big thought. Chad Henne was knocked out of this game early, which brought in Matt Moore to play quarterback for the Dolphins. If you’ll remember, he did an admirable job as the backup in Carolina last year, but I do not recommend him in any league format. Let’s move onto the running game. Daniel Thomas was a great story for weeks two and three. But, as he was inactive this week, Reggie Bush saw the majority of the carries. How many years will it take for teams to realize that he is never going to be a productive, every down running back? Lex Hilliard got the only rushing touchdown for the ‘Fins, and there was also a Steve Slaton sighting in the box score. When you look up “Hot Mess” in the dictionary, you will probably find a picture of the Dolphins and Chiefs running back situations. If Daniel Thomas can stay healthy and prove it, he can be started in most leagues. Other than that, stay far, far away from the Miami running backs.
New England 31, Oakland 19
Headline – Congratulations to the Oakland defense for keeping Brady under 5,000 passing yards.
Who’s Hot?
Wes Welker – With the exception of Calvin Johnson, Welker is the hottest receiver in the NFL. If you were lucky enough to draft him, he was probably drafted as your #2 or #3 receiver. That’s pretty nice when he’s giving you #1 type production week in and week out. Welker was targeted 14 times (9 receptions), while the next most targeted receiver was Rob Gronkowski with five targets. Look for this trend to continue, as that New England passing game shows no signs of slowing down.
Darren McFadden – No, he didn’t get a TD this week, but he was still able to give you a lot of yard through both the running and passing attack. If you are like me, you drafted McFadden in the second round, but he is giving you clear-cut first round value. I think this is going to be a monster year for Run DMC, so he’s a definite no-brainer for your starting roster every week.
Who’s Not?
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk has been a fantasy gold mine up until this week. I think opposing defenses have finally wised up and realized that New England loves to get their tight ends involved in the offense. He was limited to one catch, on five targets. I think this was an anomaly, and I expect Gronk to be a big part of the offense going forward. When Aaron Hernandez comes back, I think that will only help Gronk’s value. He remains a must-start in all leagues.
Jets 17, Ravens 34
Headline – Consider yourself lucky if you missed watching this game.
Who’s Hot?
Ray Rice – In this ugly, ugly game, Rice did manage to get over 120 total yards, and found the end zone once. He didn’t have exceptional success, considering his 66 yards on 25 carries (2.6 average). I expect Rice to have a monster year, and is a must start every week.
Who’s Not?
Everyone who’s NOT Ray Rice – This game was ugly. You were rewarded greatly if you have either the Jets or Ravens DST on your team. Neither QB had more than 165 yards or even threw a touchdown. Obviously, no receiver on either team got any substantial yardage. Yuck, I feel like I need to wash my hands after typing up this recap. Not much you can take away from an ugly game like this. Obviously you are starting these defenses each week.
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